What is the online payment experience of tomorrow?

Commerce is at a pivotal moment. Technological advances such as biometrics and AI, combined with consumers’ increased demand for seamless and secure payment experiences, are evolving the ways people pay and get paid, fast. This pace of change is not letting up and by 2030, our vision is for online payments to replicate the ease, consistency, speed and security of contactless payments, whilst delivering additional value by making the experience truly personal.

Whilst some retailers offer a super simple user experience, it’s by no means universal. Many checkouts still require you to manually enter card details, remember passwords, wait for one-time-passcodes or redirect you to an entirely separate site. It’s time for that to change.

To make online payments as simple and secure as possible for all our consumers and merchants, we must deliver consistently great user experiences; bring down fraud rates everywhere to an even lower rate; and improve data quality to support fraud management and the demand for personalisation in the era of AI.

The technology to deliver this vision already exists. So, what can be done to ensure that every online purchase aligns with the best-in-class standard by 2030?

The evolution of the checkout experience

Over the last five years, significant progress has been made in e-commerce payments. Through the increased adoption of Visa’s authentication and token technologies, we’ve consistently innovated to tackle fraud, with Europe achieving Visa’s lowest fraud rates around the world.

In partnership with our clients, we’ve enhanced trust in digital payments, increased authorisation rates by up to 10% with solutions like Click to Pay¹, and built exceptional commerce experiences, adding immense value to European economies – for example its token technology has delivered over $11 billion in incremental sales and counting.²

Our blueprint for payment innovation: identity, choice and experience

We believe the convergence of identity, choice, and experience, underpinned by trust, will be vital to enabling tomorrow’s e-commerce.

• Identity: Enhanced personalisation, powered by AI and embedded intelligence, is the next frontier. Whilst identity and authentication have always been integral parts of a safe and reliable payment experience, we believe their placement within the payment experience should move to front and centre. By putting identity first in the payment experience, once a consumer has been recognised securely with their Passkey, enriched experiences can follow. By linking payment credentials with identity documents, such as passports, or attributes like concessions, consumers can unlock a curated shopping experience, tailored to their needs.
• Choice: Until now we had one physical form factor, attached to one credential, attached to one use case: A prepaid for a one-off prepaid balance, a credit card to access credit. These were built for a physical world and not adapted for a digital world. As these worlds converge, it’s important to treat individuals as individuals, enabling choice and control and protecting them across all their payments – card, non-card, account-to-account etc. Solutions like Visa Flexible Credentials, Visa A2A and Visa Instalment allow consumers to effortlessly link their identity credentials with multiple funding sources and payment options, so they can enjoy unparalleled freedom of choice.
• Experience: Up to now, life, experiences and purchases were all separated from the payment. But as the lines between the physical and digital worlds continue to blur, commerce is becoming increasingly ‘phygital’, with things like QR codes and biometrics now commonplace. With Gen Z demonstrating more interest in experience-based spending than ever before, embedding the payment more seamlessly into the experience is vital. As AI continues to advance, consumers increasingly rely on it to help them discover goods and services online. Visa is at the forefront of enabling these experiences, working closely with our partners to deliver a personalised, seamless and, above all, secure commerce experience for everyone.

As we look towards 2030, businesses must be ready to meet the rapidly changing consumer landscape. The focus should be on delivering bold and innovative experiences that leverage the latest advancements in technology and put trust at the centre of everything.

Making the payment experience of tomorrow a reality today

Imagine a future where agentic commerce is the norm. Visa Intelligent Commerce – a groundbreaking initiative set to usher in the first generation of true AI commerce. The pioneering program will enable AI agents to seamlessly manage every aspect of the purchasing process, from browsing and selection to checkout and post-purchase management, delivering a personalised, hassle-free, secure shopping experience – whether they’re booking a holiday, ordering groceries or paying bills.

In all of these scenarios, of course, the end payment process is critical – if there is no payment, there is no commerce. So how do we deliver robust payment security in an agent-based environment?

1. AI-ready cards – A programmable Visa card, authenticated and tokenised for use in AI environments.
   
2. Simple and secure AI payments – New AI-powered commerce experiences, leveraging existing technologies like tokenisation to providing all parties involved with trust and transparency.
   
3. AI-powered personalisation – Using Visa insights from billions of transactions to power search and commerce experiences, while ensuring the consumer remains in control and possession of their data.
   

While AI commerce is just getting started, the potential is huge, revolutionising the way we shop, do business, and live our lives.

Scaling up: The road to mass adoption

So, how can businesses set themselves up for success in this evolving landscape?

1. Broaden Tokenisation Adoption: Europe recently hit a milestone with 50% of Visa e-commerce transactions secured by tokenisation³. The goal? To make tokenisation default, removing PANs from the ecosystem entirely and unlocking new levels of security and efficiency. Making tokenisation and embedded credentials the baseline - businesses can provide a frictionless and secure experience for consumers, whilst lowering their own risk of fraud and increasing authorisation rates.
   
2. Leverage AI and Embedded Intelligence: As AI continues to advance the shopping experience, businesses should tap into open data and AI to lower fraud and provide a solid foundation for agentic commerce experiences. 
   
3. Enhance Authentication with Digital IDs and Passkeys: Using enhanced authentication (biometrics) such as those offered by Click to Pay, Payment Passkeys, and digital IDs will redefine consumer authentication, reducing friction without compromising security.
   

The impact: A win-win for everyone

The potential societal and economic benefits of scaling these innovations are vast. For example, based on projections from 2023 data, full ecommerce tokenisation could generate an additional $36B in incremental sales across Europe, while fraud savings could reach $424M⁴.

By embracing data-driven personalisation, offering unparalleled choice, and embedding trust at every stage of the payment journey, businesses of all sizes can future-proof their success, driving growth for the wider economy.

The future is here – it’s time to scale it.