From Tech Hubs to Tourism Booms: The Region's Economic Transformation
While various risks and uncertainties could cloud the global economic outlook in 2025, CEMEA's diverse economies are poised for growth and transformation. From post-conflict recovery to tourism booms and technology revolutions, the region presents a dynamic mix of opportunities and challenges, explains Mohamed Bardastani, Visa's Principal Economist for Central and Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa.
Despite a complex and challenging global economic landscape, the real story of 2025 is one of remarkable resilience and a shifting global balance. Worldwide, a 3.3% gross domestic product (GDP) growth is projected1, with established economies like the US, India, and the GCC poised for robust expansion, while Europe, Latin America, and the Caribbean anticipate more moderate gains. But the true dynamism lies in emerging markets across Asia and Africa. There, rising incomes, burgeoning middle classes, and the digital revolution—marked by increasing internet penetration—are not just driving local economies but reshaping the global stage, creating vibrant new markets for goods and services.
CEMEA poised for economic acceleration in 2025, though not without challenges
In Central and Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa (CEMEA) GDP growth is projected to accelerate from 2.8% in 2024 to 3.3% in 20252. This upward trend is consistent with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) anticipating a remarkable growth rate of 4.7%, significantly above its pre-pandemic average of 2.5%. Similarly, the Commonwealth of Independent States and Southeast Europe (CISSEE) and Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are projected to achieve growth rates of 4.3% and 3.6%, respectively, both surpassing their pre-pandemic averages. North Africa, Levant, and Pakistan (NALP) is also expected to match its pre-pandemic average growth of approximately 3.2%.
While overall economic projections remain favorable, the region faces substantial challenges, including elevated consumer prices, high inflation, imbalances in government finances, build-up in public debt, high youth unemployment and potential social instability. This calls for a more cautious and measured approach to economic policy to ensure mitigation of these risks and the promotion of sustainable and inclusive economic growth.
Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)
Diversification in GCC continues to accelerate beyond oil. Saudi Arabia’s ambitious tourism goals and growing female workforce signal a significant shift toward a more diversified and inclusive economy. Women now make up 45% of SME owners in Saudi Arabia, and the country plans to boost female workforce participation to 40% by 2030. Since the launch of Vision 2030, female workforce participation has increased from 17% to 35%, surpassing the Kingdom’s initial 2030 target of 30%3.
Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 includes plans to boost inbound tourism, aiming to attract 150 million visitors annually by 2030. In the first half of 2024, Saudi Arabia saw 60 million visitors and $38.1 billion in tourism revenue4 and expects a 4.5% increase in consumer spending in 20255. In the UAE, Dubai continued its upward trajectory in tourism, welcoming 16.79 million international overnight visitors from January to November 2024, marking a 9% increase compared to the previous year6.
North Africa, Levant, and Pakistan (NALP)
Meanwhile the NALP region is emerging as a leader in renewable energy. Investment in renewables yields substantial job creation benefits, surpassing fossil fuels by two to five times per dollar invested7. The Levant shows promising growth, with Jordan achieving 27% renewable electricity generation, exceeding expectations and leading to a raised 2030 target of 50%. Morocco, with over 38% of its installed power capacity from renewables, has also raised its 2030 target to 52%8. Egypt is aiming for a 58% share of renewable energy in power generation by 20409. A testament to this commitment is the substantial investment in the Benban Solar Park, one of the largest solar installations in the world10.
Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)
A technology boom is underway in SSA driving local economies and disrupting the global tech landscape. The region has seen a surge in innovative tech startups, with African fintech startup revenue projected to reach $30 billion in 202511. Nigeria, Kenya, and South Africa have the most advanced startup ecosystems in SSA, fueled by increased internet and mobile penetration, untapped markets, investment and venture capital opportunities, and accelerated urban development. Nigeria's tech industry is projected to reach $88 billion by 2025, driven by the growth of fintech, e-commerce, and software development12.
Commonwealth of Independent States and South and Eastern Europe (CISSEE)
There is relative stabilization in the Commonwealth of Independent States, with Ukraine making slow progress to restore some form of economic stability following difficult years at war. Ukraine’s GDP, one of the largest in the CIS, is projected to rise by 3.7% in 2025 to $200 billion13, supported by the approval of G7 members’ $50 billion in loans14. The country’s export prospects have also improved, thanks to the opening of a Black Sea export corridor .
Investing in a thriving economic landscape
CEMEA’s economic future is brimming with potential. The region’s diverse economies, combined with technological innovation, its burgeoning tourism sector and its focus on sustainable development, position it for robust and sustained growth. While challenges undoubtedly remain, CEMEA’s resilience, adaptability and forward-thinking approach make it a compelling region for investment, partnership and engagement.
CEMEA is not just participating in the future of the global economy; it is actively shaping it.
Stay current with the latest payments insights from Visa Navigate CEMEA - subscribe today.
All brand names, logos and/or trademarks are the property of their respective owners, are used for identification purposes only, and do not necessarily imply product endorsement or affiliation with Visa.
1Economic Outlook: Global growth to remain resilient in 2025 and 2026 despite significant risks, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, 4 December 2024
2Oxford Economics databank https://data.oxfordeconomics.com/
3Saudi Arabia sets ambitious goal of 40% female workforce participation by 2030, Fast Company Middle East, 31 October 2024
4https://skift.com/2024/08/09/middle-east-tourism-roundup-from-the-first-half-of-2024/#:~:text=Saudi%20Arabia%20saw%20a%20combined,the%20first%20half%20of%202024.
5https://www.middleeastbriefing.com/news/saudi-arabia-investment-outlook-2025-opportunities/#:~:text=With%20GDP%20projected%20to%20grow,in%20a%20shifting%20global%20landscape
6https://www.dubaidet.gov.ae/en/research-and-insights/tourism-performance-report-november-2024
7North Africa's Renewable Potential and Strategic Location Reinforce Its Role in Energy Transition, International Energy Renewable Agency (IRENA), 26 February 2024
8Mapping MENA’s Renewable Energy Supply Chains: The Emergence of Green Energy Ecosystems in the Middle East and North Africa (Study), Middle East Institute, 18 December 2024
9https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/egypt-looking-raise-target-renewable-energy-58-by-2040-2024-06-29/
10https://www.afdb.org/en/success-stories/egypt-benban-model-clean-energy-production-africa-60169
11Fintech in Africa: The end of the beginning, McKinsey & Company, 30 August 2022
12https://www.evanigeria.org/tech-as-a-catalyst-transforming-career-paths-and-community-impact-for-nigerian-youth/#:~:text=According%20to%20Jobberman%2C%20the%20tech,their%20lives%20and%20their%20communities.
13https://gmk.center/en/posts/analysts-expect-ukraines-gdp-to-increase-to-200-bln-in-2025/#:~:text=Independent%20analysts%20expect%20Ukraine's%20GDP,results%20of%20the%20current%20yea
14https://www.reuters.com/world/g7-leaders-agree-how-deliver-around-50-billion-loans-ukraine-2024-10-25/
15EBRD lowers Ukraine 2025 growth forecast to 4.7 per cent, Vanora Bennett, 26 September 2024
Share Feedback